Lot of traffic lights at big pole.
Sometimes predictions are prophetic, which is what they’re supposed to be. But sometimes they’re just “out there.” Gartner’s predictions about organizations and users are sometimes interesting and sometimes goofy, though many of us will like losing our bosses, tricking social media and attacking cyber hackers (with the military).
Gartner presents some organizational and user predictions for 2022 and beyond. Here’s how Gartner starts:
“Resilience, opportunity and risk have always been components of good business strategy, but today these issues hold new meaning. This year’s predictions embody how resilience must be built in more non-traditional ways, from talent to business modularity, while opportunity and risk must be viewed with a greater sense of urgency than ever before.”
I must confess that I’m growing impatient and frustrated with business jargon, especially jargon that tells us how urgent everything is. It’s like, “what the hell is true north (or is it north star) anyway?” What do compass points and stars have to do with business? What about “resilience must be built in more non-traditional ways, from talent to business modularity.” Does that make obvious sense, or does it require some decoding? Is it possible we’ve risen too high into the comfort of our business metaphors?
Gartner’s Predictions — Did They Really Say That?
Businessman holding a glass ball,foretelling the future.
Curmudgeon-ness aside, here are Gartner’s predictions and my thoughts about each of them:
By 2024, 40% of consumers will trick behavior tracking metrics to intentionally devalue the personal data collected about them, making it difficult to monetize.
I have no idea where this prediction comes from, or upon what evidence it’s based. Anecdotally – and I sure hope Gartner has a ton of empirical evidence at their disposal to justify the prediction – I don’t know anyone who would spend their precious time trying to trick algorithms. Is there some reward one gets from tricking? How does one know if it’s working? Is this just about punking Facebook, Instagram and TikTok? Seriously, is there some secret society bent on “manipulating algorithms and spoiling databases” that’s already out there working 24/7 to get this done? Taming “surveillance capitalism” is not going to come from angry-user Ninjas. It can only come from regulation, boycotts and prosecutions. But remember that Facebook’s user base …….